Risk vs. Return – Quant
If a rational investor wants to earn a higher return on their investment, they should expect to bear a higher risk. Conversely, if a rational investor accepts more risk on an investment, they should...
View ArticleBasics of Probability
Terminology It’s probably (sorry) best to define some terms at the outset, so here goes: Random variable: a variable whose future value is as yet unknown. Examples of random variables are the: Value...
View ArticleUsing Your Fingers and Toes: Counting
If you thought that you learned all you needed to know about counting in elementary school, think again. I’ll run through several counting formulae (with examples) used in the CFA curriculum, but...
View ArticleBinomial Trees (for Stocks)
Binomial trees for stock prices (or prices for pretty much any asset: stocks, commodities, real estate, baseball cards, whatever) are pretty simple (i.e., too simple to be realistic): they assume...
View ArticleMultivariate Normal Distributions
Man, that title sounds imposing! Multivariate. Seriously: how often do you use a word with five or more syllables? You might occasionally say “inconsequential”, and at Level I you’ll say...
View ArticleLognormal Distribution
Before reading this article, make sure that you have read the article on probability distributions in general. Suppose that X is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of μ and a variance...
View ArticleMonte Carlo Simulation
In a nutshell, Monte Carlo simulation uses random numbers to approximate the solutions to a variety of problems. For our purposes, these problems will generally involve trying to approximate...
View ArticleCentral Limit Theorem
It’s probably (sorry) not an exaggeration (or, at least, not much of one) to say that the central limit theorem is the single most important theorem in probability theory. It’s so important that it...
View ArticleSampling and Estimation
Often it’s impractical (or even impossible) to collect data on every member of a population in which you are interested. When it is, an alternative approach that may prove adequate is to collect data...
View ArticleParametric Tests vs. Nonparametric Tests
Parametric tests are straightforward and are the focus of most of . . . well . . . all of the other hypothesis testing articles I’ve written here. They’re concerned, not surprisingly, with questions...
View ArticleTechnical Analysis – Principles, Applications, and Assumptions
This is the boring article about technical analysis: no pictures. Sorry. The others have pictures. They’re, therefore, more exciting. Principles of Technical Analysis The primary principle...
View ArticleTechnical Analysis – Charts
Technical analysts like charts, and CFA candidates like looking at pictures a lot more than reading boring words, so this should be a popular (and colorful) article. At least, as popular as an...
View ArticleTechnical Analysis – Trends and Patterns
Trends The single, most important idea underlying technical analysis is arguably trends: Is this security in an uptrend? Is this security in a downtrend? If this security is in a trend, how long will...
View ArticleTechnical Analysis – Indicators
Be forewarned: there are many technical indicators, so this article is rather long. What you what to get from it is an understanding of what each indicator is (i.e., its definition), and what each...
View ArticleTechnical Analysis – Cycles and Waves
Cycles Business tends to move in cycles, from expansion to peak to recession to nadir (!) and back to expansion. There are cycles of differing lengths that can influence capital markets; some of...
View ArticleTechnical Analysis
Let’s get this discussion going on clear footing from the outset: I’m no fan of technical analysis. I understand that it has shown some promise in the analysis of currency exchange rates, but on the...
View ArticleTechnical Analysis – Intermarket Analysis
Markets are interlinked. There are strong correlations between prices in equity markets, fixed income markets, commodity markets, real estate markets, and so on. (It’s too much to say, for example,...
View ArticleEconomics – Weird Graphs
This is a very short article, but one that you should read before reading any other article that deals with supply and demand. In a nutshell, economists’ supply and demand graphs – price vs. quantity...
View ArticleElasticities: Price, Income, and Cross
This article contains a number of supply and demand graphs. Before reading it, I encourage you to look at this short article I wrote on these graphs, so that you don’t risk suffering irreparable...
View ArticleMarginal Stuff: Revenue, Cost, Profit, Product, & Return
Let’s get the terminology out of the way first. “Marginal” means “for the next unit”. Thus: Marginal Revenue: The increase in revenue (sales) from producing and selling one additional unit of...
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